Author Archives: Philip Orton

A Penhorn Polder Wildlife Refuge for Hoboken Flood Protection

We hear all the time how The Netherlands is a demonstration of how the New York City and New Jersey metro area can adapt to coastal flooding.  But we have very little in common with The Netherlands … they have … Continue reading

Posted in opinion, security, water | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Perspectives on NY/NJ Coastal Adaptation to Extreme Flooding Events

I’ve been busy trying to finish up a bunch of storm surge related research for the past few months, but occasionally speaking on various scientific panels and other public events.  So, below I’m linking a few of these that people … Continue reading

Posted in climate, opinion, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Touring Sandy’s Impact on Lower Manhattan

After an interview at Battery Park on Tuesday the day after for ABC News 20/20 Special “The Perfect Storm”, I went on a walk to see the aftermath of Sandy’s visit to lower Manhattan.  My tour took me from Battery … Continue reading

Posted in photography, water, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Tempest-Tossed, Let’s Not Imitate New Orleans

[This opinion piece was published online in the New York Times Room for Debate series on 11/1/12 as part of the debate Should New York Build Sea Gates?  Someone also published an editorial with a similar point to my second paragraph in … Continue reading

Posted in opinion, water, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Sandy We’re in Misery: Storm Recap

Now that Sandy has moved on, and some of us are lucky enough to have power and be getting back to “normal life”, I’m finally writing to recap what happened with the coastal flooding and how the forecasts compared to … Continue reading

Posted in water, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Upcoming Presentation on Surges, Barriers and Coastal Restoration

I have an oral presentation at the American Geophysical Union Fall Conference in San Francisco, December 4th, 3:25-3:40 pm.  It is particularly timely, given the destruction left by Sandy and the growing discussions about storm surge barriers.  And similarly, don’t … Continue reading

Posted in water, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Updated Forecasts from SSWS and ET-Surge

Our Stevens Storm Surge Warning System have been predicting flood elevations about a foot below the observations, so take this as a low-end estimate, but here are those predictions.  Also plotted are NOAA’s ET-SURGE predictions, which have a similar estimated peak water … Continue reading

Posted in water, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

What Height to Expect from this Evening’s Deluge

We are looking at a coastal flood around New York City region tonight that is nearly certain to be record-breaking.  The morning flood at The Battery and other nearby locations was close to the flood elevation of Irene, and only … Continue reading

Posted in water, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Dangerous, Likely Recordbreaking Surge Coming to NYC

Sandy’s storm surge for New York Harbor is almost definitely going to be worse than Irene’s, and it is likely to cause several feet higher flooding.  There is a good chance (about 50%) that flood elevations at Manhattan and nearby … Continue reading

Posted in water, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Sandy’s Storm Surge Forecast Interpretation: Steady and Not Good

The forecasts are gradually steadying for the storm surge flood elevations for Sandy, but strong uncertainty exists because the timing of the flood relative to high tide can make all the difference … The “central forecast” for the storm is … Continue reading

Posted in water, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment