Tag Archives: forecast

Sandy We’re in Misery: Storm Recap

Now that Sandy has moved on, and some of us are lucky enough to have power and be getting back to “normal life”, I’m finally writing to recap what happened with the coastal flooding and how the forecasts compared to … Continue reading

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Updated Forecasts from SSWS and ET-Surge

Our Stevens Storm Surge Warning System have been predicting flood elevations about a foot below the observations, so take this as a low-end estimate, but here are those predictions.  Also plotted are NOAA’s ET-SURGE predictions, which have a similar estimated peak water … Continue reading

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What Height to Expect from this Evening’s Deluge

We are looking at a coastal flood around New York City region tonight that is nearly certain to be record-breaking.  The morning flood at The Battery and other nearby locations was close to the flood elevation of Irene, and only … Continue reading

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Dangerous, Likely Recordbreaking Surge Coming to NYC

Sandy’s storm surge for New York Harbor is almost definitely going to be worse than Irene’s, and it is likely to cause several feet higher flooding.  There is a good chance (about 50%) that flood elevations at Manhattan and nearby … Continue reading

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Sandy’s Storm Surge Forecast Interpretation: Steady and Not Good

The forecasts are gradually steadying for the storm surge flood elevations for Sandy, but strong uncertainty exists because the timing of the flood relative to high tide can make all the difference … The “central forecast” for the storm is … Continue reading

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Sandy’s Flood Forecast Gets Bleaker (and Bleeker?)

Our six-hour update just came in and it’s not good news for New York City and areas of New Jersey inside NY/NJ Harbor — the model forecast for Monday night rose two feet higher at The Battery, so now it … Continue reading

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Sandy/Frankenstorm Storm Surge Forecast Interpretation

Here comes Hurricane Sandy, aka Frankenstorm — The “central forecast” for the storm is for it make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum winds of about 70-80 mph, and run a northwestward course over Southern New Jersey.  Quite … Continue reading

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Spring Tides and Perfect Storms

A storm with similarities to the Perfect Storm of 1991 is expected to come northward by early next week and may make landfall in the Northeastern U.S. or Canadian Maritimes.  Some have been mentioning that the storm would arrive near … Continue reading

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Irene Update, 1:00am Sunday: Goodnight Irene, Goodnight

Irene’s eye and peak intensity are now about 9 hours away, and most of NYC is either sleeping or regretting that third 16 oz hurricane.  The latest National Hurricane Center forecast (11 pm) calls for the center of Irene to pass … Continue reading

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Irene Update: 8am Saturday – 24 Hours Away [4pm update]

Hurricane Irene’s eye and peak intensity are now about 17 hours away, though the storm is already impacting our weather.  The latest National Hurricane Center forecast (2pm) calls for the center of Irene to pass right along the New Jersey coast … Continue reading

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