[a more recent forecast followed this one – go straight to SeaAndSkyNY.com and scroll down to find the latest update]

Recent updates from the National Hurricane Center show a forecast track for Hurricane Irene over the Outer Banks at Category 3, then making landfall close to New York City at Category 1.  As always, they make clear that there is substantial track uncertainty beyond a few days forecast (average error of 200-250 miles at 4-5 days) — we hope to post a probability map in the coming hours.

As I said 18 hours ago, this is very similar to the track of the worst hurricane to ever hit NYC, back when it had a much smaller population in 1821.  Fortunately, the forecast strength of the storm is generally weaker.  Nevertheless, a storm track along the Jersey Shore or onto New Jersey is very bad for NYC storm surge flooding (see here, or here), as both the onshore winds and the strongest winds are to the right of the propagation path.