Tag Archives: long island

What Height to Expect from this Evening’s Deluge

Posted on October 29, 2012 by Philip Orton

We are looking at a coastal flood around New York City region tonight that is nearly certain to be record-breaking.  The morning flood at The Battery and other nearby locations was close to the flood elevation of Irene, and only … Continue reading →

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Dangerous, Likely Recordbreaking Surge Coming to NYC

Posted on October 28, 2012 by Philip Orton

Sandy’s storm surge for New York Harbor is almost definitely going to be worse than Irene’s, and it is likely to cause several feet higher flooding.  There is a good chance (about 50%) that flood elevations at Manhattan and nearby … Continue reading →

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Sandy’s Storm Surge Forecast Interpretation: Steady and Not Good

Posted on October 28, 2012 by Philip Orton

The forecasts are gradually steadying for the storm surge flood elevations for Sandy, but strong uncertainty exists because the timing of the flood relative to high tide can make all the difference … The “central forecast” for the storm is … Continue reading →

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Sandy’s Flood Forecast Gets Bleaker (and Bleeker?)

Posted on October 27, 2012 by Philip Orton

Our six-hour update just came in and it’s not good news for New York City and areas of New Jersey inside NY/NJ Harbor — the model forecast for Monday night rose two feet higher at The Battery, so now it … Continue reading →

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Sandy/Frankenstorm Storm Surge Forecast Interpretation

Posted on October 27, 2012 by Philip Orton

Here comes Hurricane Sandy, aka Frankenstorm — The “central forecast” for the storm is for it make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum winds of about 70-80 mph, and run a northwestward course over Southern New Jersey.  Quite … Continue reading →

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Spring Tides and Perfect Storms

Posted on October 25, 2012 by Philip Orton

A storm with similarities to the Perfect Storm of 1991 is expected to come northward by early next week and may make landfall in the Northeastern U.S. or Canadian Maritimes.  Some have been mentioning that the storm would arrive near … Continue reading →

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Birds-Eye and Fish-Eye Views of Irene’s Floodwaters

Posted on August 26, 2012 by Philip Orton

Approaching the anniversary of last year’s landfall in New York City of Tropical Storm Irene, I decided to make some animations of that storm’s flood elevations and water currents.  The model-based animations have voice-overs explaining what happened in the water during … Continue reading →

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Our Cozy Little Heat Island

Posted on January 13, 2012 by Philip Orton

As our year’s coldest weather may be on its way this weekend, it might warm you to compare this spell to one lesser-known historical cold temperature record.  New York City metro area winters are a quite a bit warmer than … Continue reading →

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Irene Update, 1:00am Sunday: Goodnight Irene, Goodnight

Posted on August 28, 2011 by Philip Orton

Irene’s eye and peak intensity are now about 9 hours away, and most of NYC is either sleeping or regretting that third 16 oz hurricane.  The latest National Hurricane Center forecast (11 pm) calls for the center of Irene to pass … Continue reading →

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Irene Update: 8am Saturday – 24 Hours Away [4pm update]

Posted on August 27, 2011 by Philip Orton

Hurricane Irene’s eye and peak intensity are now about 17 hours away, though the storm is already impacting our weather.  The latest National Hurricane Center forecast (2pm) calls for the center of Irene to pass right along the New Jersey coast … Continue reading →

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