Tag Archives: Long Island Sound

Coastal Flood and Wave Forecast for the Blizzard

Posted on January 26, 2015 by Philip Orton

In a prior post, I laid out the dangers of combined ice, snow and storm surge flooding.  It is a potentially catastrophic risk, as exemplified by the Blizzard of ’78 in New England.  But fortunately, it’s very rare and perhaps … Continue reading →

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Updated Forecasts from SSWS and ET-Surge

Posted on October 29, 2012 by Philip Orton

Our Stevens Storm Surge Warning System have been predicting flood elevations about a foot below the observations, so take this as a low-end estimate, but here are those predictions.  Also plotted are NOAA’s ET-SURGE predictions, which have a similar estimated peak water … Continue reading →

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What Height to Expect from this Evening’s Deluge

Posted on October 29, 2012 by Philip Orton

We are looking at a coastal flood around New York City region tonight that is nearly certain to be record-breaking.  The morning flood at The Battery and other nearby locations was close to the flood elevation of Irene, and only … Continue reading →

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Dangerous, Likely Recordbreaking Surge Coming to NYC

Posted on October 28, 2012 by Philip Orton

Sandy’s storm surge for New York Harbor is almost definitely going to be worse than Irene’s, and it is likely to cause several feet higher flooding.  There is a good chance (about 50%) that flood elevations at Manhattan and nearby … Continue reading →

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Sandy’s Storm Surge Forecast Interpretation: Steady and Not Good

Posted on October 28, 2012 by Philip Orton

The forecasts are gradually steadying for the storm surge flood elevations for Sandy, but strong uncertainty exists because the timing of the flood relative to high tide can make all the difference … The “central forecast” for the storm is … Continue reading →

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Sandy’s Flood Forecast Gets Bleaker (and Bleeker?)

Posted on October 27, 2012 by Philip Orton

Our six-hour update just came in and it’s not good news for New York City and areas of New Jersey inside NY/NJ Harbor — the model forecast for Monday night rose two feet higher at The Battery, so now it … Continue reading →

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Sandy/Frankenstorm Storm Surge Forecast Interpretation

Posted on October 27, 2012 by Philip Orton

Here comes Hurricane Sandy, aka Frankenstorm — The “central forecast” for the storm is for it make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum winds of about 70-80 mph, and run a northwestward course over Southern New Jersey.  Quite … Continue reading →

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Where Is The Sewage Spill Plume Going?

Posted on July 22, 2011 by Philip Orton

Linked below is today’s updated sewage plume hindcast/forecast video based on the Stevens Institute of Technology NYHOPS ocean model and created using NOAA’s GNOME particle tracking tool.  The simulation runs from 5:15 PM, Wednesday July 20th to 12:00 AM, Saturday … Continue reading →

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