Tag Archives: forecast

Southeast Winds and Flooding from Continental Storms

Posted on December 19, 2022 by Philip Orton

A massive extratropical storm over the Midwest will bring strong southeast winds to New York Bight and the potential for widespread coastal flooding this Thursday and Friday. Sustained winds in the New York metro area will peak at 25-35 mph … Continue reading →

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Coastal Flood and Wave Forecast for the Blizzard

Posted on January 26, 2015 by Philip Orton

In a prior post, I laid out the dangers of combined ice, snow and storm surge flooding.  It is a potentially catastrophic risk, as exemplified by the Blizzard of ’78 in New England.  But fortunately, it’s very rare and perhaps … Continue reading →

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Winter Coastal Storms – a Dangerous Mix of Hazards

Posted on January 2, 2014 by Philip Orton

The winter storm hitting us right now is a reminder of how coastal flooding and winter storms can mix and bring a dangerous combination of hazards.  While the winds in this storm are substantially weaker (good news) than the Blizzard … Continue reading →

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Not a Priority: Federal Funding to Improve Flood Forecasting

Posted on August 1, 2013 by Philip Orton

Dear Dr. Orton: Thank you for your submission of the proposal [(censored) title relating to improving our Storm Surge Warning System’s forecasting of storm surges] to the [(censored) federal program]. Although your proposal ranked in the top group and was … Continue reading →

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Sandy We’re in Misery: Storm Recap

Posted on November 3, 2012 by Philip Orton

Now that Sandy has moved on, and some of us are lucky enough to have power and be getting back to “normal life”, I’m finally writing to recap what happened with the coastal flooding and how the forecasts compared to … Continue reading →

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Updated Forecasts from SSWS and ET-Surge

Posted on October 29, 2012 by Philip Orton

Our Stevens Storm Surge Warning System have been predicting flood elevations about a foot below the observations, so take this as a low-end estimate, but here are those predictions.  Also plotted are NOAA’s ET-SURGE predictions, which have a similar estimated peak water … Continue reading →

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What Height to Expect from this Evening’s Deluge

Posted on October 29, 2012 by Philip Orton

We are looking at a coastal flood around New York City region tonight that is nearly certain to be record-breaking.  The morning flood at The Battery and other nearby locations was close to the flood elevation of Irene, and only … Continue reading →

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Dangerous, Likely Recordbreaking Surge Coming to NYC

Posted on October 28, 2012 by Philip Orton

Sandy’s storm surge for New York Harbor is almost definitely going to be worse than Irene’s, and it is likely to cause several feet higher flooding.  There is a good chance (about 50%) that flood elevations at Manhattan and nearby … Continue reading →

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Sandy’s Storm Surge Forecast Interpretation: Steady and Not Good

Posted on October 28, 2012 by Philip Orton

The forecasts are gradually steadying for the storm surge flood elevations for Sandy, but strong uncertainty exists because the timing of the flood relative to high tide can make all the difference … The “central forecast” for the storm is … Continue reading →

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Sandy’s Flood Forecast Gets Bleaker (and Bleeker?)

Posted on October 27, 2012 by Philip Orton

Our six-hour update just came in and it’s not good news for New York City and areas of New Jersey inside NY/NJ Harbor — the model forecast for Monday night rose two feet higher at The Battery, so now it … Continue reading →

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