Tag Archives: hurricane

Updated Forecasts from SSWS and ET-Surge

Posted on October 29, 2012 by Philip Orton

Our Stevens Storm Surge Warning System have been predicting flood elevations about a foot below the observations, so take this as a low-end estimate, but here are those predictions.  Also plotted are NOAA’s ET-SURGE predictions, which have a similar estimated peak water … Continue reading →

Posted in water, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

What Height to Expect from this Evening’s Deluge

Posted on October 29, 2012 by Philip Orton

We are looking at a coastal flood around New York City region tonight that is nearly certain to be record-breaking.  The morning flood at The Battery and other nearby locations was close to the flood elevation of Irene, and only … Continue reading →

Posted in water, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on What Height to Expect from this Evening’s Deluge

Dangerous, Likely Recordbreaking Surge Coming to NYC

Posted on October 28, 2012 by Philip Orton

Sandy’s storm surge for New York Harbor is almost definitely going to be worse than Irene’s, and it is likely to cause several feet higher flooding.  There is a good chance (about 50%) that flood elevations at Manhattan and nearby … Continue reading →

Posted in water, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Sandy’s Storm Surge Forecast Interpretation: Steady and Not Good

Posted on October 28, 2012 by Philip Orton

The forecasts are gradually steadying for the storm surge flood elevations for Sandy, but strong uncertainty exists because the timing of the flood relative to high tide can make all the difference … The “central forecast” for the storm is … Continue reading →

Posted in water, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Sandy’s Flood Forecast Gets Bleaker (and Bleeker?)

Posted on October 27, 2012 by Philip Orton

Our six-hour update just came in and it’s not good news for New York City and areas of New Jersey inside NY/NJ Harbor — the model forecast for Monday night rose two feet higher at The Battery, so now it … Continue reading →

Posted in water, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Sandy/Frankenstorm Storm Surge Forecast Interpretation

Posted on October 27, 2012 by Philip Orton

Here comes Hurricane Sandy, aka Frankenstorm — The “central forecast” for the storm is for it make landfall as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum winds of about 70-80 mph, and run a northwestward course over Southern New Jersey.  Quite … Continue reading →

Posted in water, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Sandy/Frankenstorm Storm Surge Forecast Interpretation

Spring Tides and Perfect Storms

Posted on October 25, 2012 by Philip Orton

A storm with similarities to the Perfect Storm of 1991 is expected to come northward by early next week and may make landfall in the Northeastern U.S. or Canadian Maritimes.  Some have been mentioning that the storm would arrive near … Continue reading →

Posted in water, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Spring Tides and Perfect Storms

Re-Awakening the American Meteorological Society’s NYC Meetings

Posted on September 24, 2012 by Philip Orton

A few of us are re-awakening the long-dormant public NYC seminar series of the NYC / Long Island chapter of the American Meteorological Society, with 1-2 evening events held per semester at Columbia University.  The webpage for seminars is: http://apam.columbia.edu/ams-nyclong-island-chapter-seminar The first … Continue reading →

Posted in climate, water | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 29 Comments

Presenting Wednesday: Impacts of Irene & Lee on the Hudson

Posted on September 18, 2012 by Philip Orton

Experts gather to outline and analyze the historic combined effect of the two storms by Craig Wen, Stevens Institute of Technology During a torrid week in 2011, cities and communities along the Hudson River were hammered by Tropical Storms Irene … Continue reading →

Posted in water, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Birds-Eye and Fish-Eye Views of Irene’s Floodwaters

Posted on August 26, 2012 by Philip Orton

Approaching the anniversary of last year’s landfall in New York City of Tropical Storm Irene, I decided to make some animations of that storm’s flood elevations and water currents.  The model-based animations have voice-overs explaining what happened in the water during … Continue reading →

Posted in water, weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment